The 10-day forecast calls for cooler temperatures this week. After today, highs should be in the thirties and lows in the 20s. There could be snow on Saturday, with accumulations of up to an inch or so. We have learned that the forecasts are not always accurate around here. The change of a few degrees can make he difference between rain and snow. In general, the closer the date, the more certain the forecast.

Our grandchildren, however, were aware of that forecast and delighted. When we stopped by the farm yesterday, they excitedly told us “It is going to snow on Saturday!” They were enjoying the three-day weekend with their father at home and a visit from their Uncle and grandma from the other side of their family.

Our weather is not going to be very severe. We don’t need to take any extra precautions. People tend to stay at home a bit more easily after the Covid pandemic, but even if we get a bit of snow on Saturday, it is likely that the snow will turn to rain and any accumulation will be gone by Sunday.

If we still lived in Rapid City, however, the story would be different. There isa winter storm warning for the Black Hills forecasting snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches with wind gusts to 45 mph from today through Thursday. Travel could be very difficult during the storm. When snow and wind mix, the visibility goes to nothing and the wind chills dip below zero. A storm like the one expected in Rapid City is not something to mess with.

On the other hand, I’m pretty sure that a foot of snow with drifts rising much higher would be pretty exciting for our grandchildren, even though we did have one such storm earlier this winter. Our temperatures were a bit higher and the dangers were a bit less. And we didn’t start with any snow on the ground. I think I shoveled a couple of times during that storm, but there was no snow left a week later.

One thing we will share with Rapid City this week is wind. The wind has been howling since early last evening and there is a gale warning out for the inland waters. The wind is coming out of the west and blowing on shore at 30 to 40 knots (about 35 to 45 mph). That gives us a bit of surf at the beach even int he bay and makes conditions rough for small boats. Inexperienced mariners would do well to seek safe harbor.

The seasons don’t change suddenly. It takes time for the earth to warm and winter to leave. We were used to spring blizzards in South Dakota, but we didn’t call a snowstorm in February “Spring.” But here, it is different. The daffodils are out of the ground. They haven’t yet bloomed, and they will survive a bit of snow, but they seem to be a sure sign of spring. The red-winged blackbirds have arrived in the reeds around the pond and they’ll weather what comes through the summer now. Most of the swans and geese are still hanging around, not yet ready to head to the north country, but you can tell by their behavior that they are preparing to leave.

Spring is a tricky season no matter where we have lived. One of our family stories is about the time, when I was a very young child, when our father got seduced by very warm February weather and removed one side of the roof of our house to expand the upstairs space. The project went well for several days and then the weather turned cold and snow fell on the unfinished project. I’m not sure of all of what happened, but they eventually got the house enclosed and weathered in so they could complete the work as winter continued for a few more months. I often tell the story of how I got spring fever the year our son was born and put out tomato plants way too early. They froze and I had to start over.

There is no doubt that the days are getting longer. Tomorrow is Ash Wednesday, the beginning of Lent. The word Lent comes from the root of the word “lengthen” and the name of the season of the church is a direct reference to the lengthening of days in the northern hemisphere. Ash Wednesday and the shift of seasons in the life of the church has always been a bit separated from the weather in my mind. I know that weather can be mild or severe during Lent. I’ve experienced spring weather during the six week season, and I’ve experienced Holy Week blizzards. The season, however, marks a change in my thinking and attitude. For most of my life, Lent has been a time of extra work. We generally added a new Bible Study, or a new class for the season. Often it was an exciting time for me as we planned new liturgies and new experiences. Lent also is a time of personal reflection for me, a reminder of my mortality, a time to renew my commitment to caring for my self. I haven’t kept records, but I’m pretty sure that I’ve started more diets and exercise programs during Lent than during any other time of the year. The season calls for a bit of introspection and invites careful thought about little, everyday decisions. Instead of mindlessly doing what we have been doing, Lent challenges us to think about what we really want to be doing and gives us the opportunity to make changes.

Like the weather, the changes can be subtle and they can trick us. We can’t forecast how we will feel or how we will be changed after the six weeks pass and Holy Week is upon us. Easter will come, but only after a season of preparation and waiting. One of the blessings of being semi-retired is having just a little bit more time to pay attention to the changes.

Whatever the weather, I pray that your spirit is healthy and the change of seasons transforms you in ways that both surprise and please you. Blessings to you!