The forecasters are warning that the rains are coming. According to some forecasters, our area could get as much as four inches or even more between tonight and Tuesday evening. That is about the usual amount of rain for the entire month of December. Rainfall, however, is pretty common around here in the winter. For the most part, systems are in place to deal with the excess water. And right where we live, we have not seen any problems due to flooding, even in November of 2021, shortly after we moved into this house when areas to the north and east of our home were inundated. There are parts of the river valley that have not yet recovered from those floods two years later.

The problem isn’t just the rain. Flooding seems to be most severe when there is a lot of fresh snow on the mountains followed by warm rain on that snow which causes rapid runoff. It is very different from other places where we have lived. On the east slope of the Rockies in Montana where I grew up, the rivers rose in the spring and early summer when warm weather returned to the high country. If the snows melted slowly, the river would rise, but there wouldn’t be significant flooding. If, however, temperatures rose suddenly and the snow melted at a rapid pace, the river would rise beyond flood stage and spread out to the surrounding country. We had a place that was in the river bottom and there were a lot of times when we saw the water rise in the yard. It never got high enough to affect the man cabin, but we wee aware that it was a risk and county regulations prevented building any new homes on our place unless they were raised up several feet above the level of the current buildings.

Here, however, flood season is in the winter. The mountains to the east of us are high enough that several peaks are covered in snow year round. Those mountains have been receiving lots of snow this fall when rains fell down where we live. It is that new snow that can melt quickly with the combination of warm weather blowing in from the Pacific and heavy rainfall. Locals report that November is the month when this is most likely. It takes a while for us to adjust our thinking.

The weather phenomena that is forecast for the next few days is called an atmospheric river. I don’t remember hearing that term used before we moved to this place. I suppose it is possible that there are no such phenomena on the plains of the upper midwest where we have lived for most of our lives. I think, however, that it is more likely that language evolves and the ways we talk about weather now is different than the ways we used to speak of it. According to Wikipedia, other names for an atmospheric river include tropical plume, tropical connection, moisture plume, water vapor surge, and cloud band. Cloud band strikes a familiar chord. I’m sure I’ve heard weather forecasters refer to cloud bands many times.

As for this week’s predicted heavy rainfall, major flooding is not being predicted at this time. The rivers and reservoirs are ready to handle the influx of water. The Nooksack River, which we cross a couple of times between here and our church, is set to crest around 16 feet on Wednesday. That’s below flood stage of 18 feet. Locals are preparing for flooding in case the forecasts are mistaken, but right now it looks like we’ll mostly see a few rainy days, the river will rise a bit, and that will be about all that happens.

I have to remind myself of how different things are in this new home. When officials say that the flood stage of the Nooksack in Ferndale is 18 feet, they are referring to feet above sea level. That’s right. When the river runs through the town just south of where we live, it is pretty close to the place it runs into the ocean. Although our house is on a hill and safe from flooding even in the event of a Tsunami, we walk almost daily alongside Terrell Creek, which flows into the ocean about a mile away. Where we walk the creek is tidal. At high tide, the creek flows away from the ocean as seawater rushes up the creek for almost three miles. When the sea level drops, the water flows the other direction and fresh water enters the bay. We can tell how high the tide is before we reach the beach by observing the creek.

I’m still adjusting to the differences in the weather in our new-to-us home. We had a couple of days when the temperature dipped below 30 degrees last week and I wore my winter parka in the morning on a couple of those days. When we lived in South Dakota I didn’t break out my parka for temperatures in the high twenties. I waited until it got really cold. That coat was good for the days when temperatures slid below zero. But here, I feel the cold differently. I’m sure that part of the difference is a product of my age. I’m older now than I used to be. But more of it, I suspect, has to do with the high humidity. I feel the cold more intensely.

Another major adjustment is that we now own really good rainwear. I’ve got a rain jacket and rain pants that allow me to go walking on those days when the rain doesn’t let up. I’m pretty sure I’ll be needing those garments over the next few days. There are several locals whose game is upped even more than that with two types of rain gear. They have regular rain jackets and pants for rainy days and storm gear for the times when rain showers have become downpours and the winds from the sea blow hard enough for the air to fill with water.

Atmospheric river or cloud band. Whatever you call it, it is heading our way. Whatever comes I’m pretty sure it won’t hold a candle to a good South Dakota blizzard. And somehow, among the things I don’t miss about South Dakota is shoveling snow.