I’m used to paying attention to the weather. In the days when my father was earning our family’s living with light aircraft, weather was a critical factor. We had printed weather maps in our home and I learned to interpret the symbols indicating barometric pressure and visualize winds as I looked over the maps. As the technology improved and common folk gained access to the information produced by Doppler radar, I began to use popular web sites such as AccuWeather and Weather Underground to access visual images of the track of storms that might affect our plans. Nonetheless, there have been plenty of times when the weather has surprised us. We’ve been caught a bit unprepared when a 25% chance of rain materializes. It wasn’t 0% in the first place, but the odds were low enough that we took a risk. We’ve spend a few days of our lives snowed in when a storm proved to be more severe than forecast.

Fortunately, however, I have never been in a place where the weather has caused devastation. I’ve never lived in a home that was damaged by a tornado, hurricane, or other weather event.

Although I grew up in Montana where winter storms can be severe, snowfalls high, and bitter cold accompanied by strong winds, I don’t remember ever having a snow day from school as a student. It is possible that such an event occurred and I don’t remember. I do remember times when the school busses didn’t run, but those of us who lived within walking distance of the school still attended. I’m pretty sure that the standards used to make decision about snow days at schools are different than when I was a child, especially in the place where we now live. I can remember snow days from our children’s school days and it seems that it doesn’t take much snow fall at all for our grand children’s school to declare a snow day.

It isn’t snow, but our daughter and her family will be home today with all of their storm plans in place. They’ve got the pantry stocked, extra water in storage, flashlights and lanterns at the ready, and will be staying at home today. Her husband won’t be going to work and they won’t have any social events. They live in Dalzell, South Carolina, and Hurricane Ian is headed their way. The hurricane that caused devastation in Puerto Rico and Cuba and on its path across the State of Florida was downgraded to a tropical storm yesterday. About twelve hours later, as the center of the storm moved back out over water, it was upgraded to hurricane status once again.

I’ve been looking over the weather maps to see how close the center of the storm will come to our daughter’s home. Of course it isn’t possible to give an exact track of a storm and the farther away in time the wider the possible storm path. I’m learning the term “cone of uncertainty” that accompanies storm tracking.

Despite the uncertainty of the storm track, it is likely that they will be experiencing heavy rain and high winds today. The storm is moving at about 10 mph and is expected to make landfall around noon and be just to the east of where our daughter lives around 8 pm this evening. They could see 8 to 10 inches of rain or more before the storm moves on. Wind speeds within the storm are likely to slow as it moves across land. Importantly, they live far enough inland to escape the storm surges that will cause significant coastal erosion an bring dangerous conditions to those living on the coast.

Last November we had a little joke when flooding hit communities not far from where we live. We observed that when the waters rise enough to cover the yard signs, people lay aside their politics and start acting like neighbors once again. Along with the surge of a storm comes a surge of community service. People reach out to help one another. We’ve seen it time and time again. Still, there will also be plenty of politics played even in the midst of the storm. We have seen politicians step in to promote their ideas and political desires in previous storms. There are politics involved in the distribution of relief aid. Politicians like to be seen in the places where storms have passed, examining the effects of the storm and appearing to be compassionate toward the victims of storms.

All it will take for us to increase our worrying would be for strong winds to topple a few cell phone towers so that we cannot talk to our daughter as the storm passes. The Internet cables in their immediate neighborhood are underground and they are likely to have avenues of communication throughout the storm, but they are within the cone of uncertainty in terms of the storm at this point. It is enough to keep me looking at the weather web sites and paying attention to the track of the storm.

Of course this isn’t only about my family. At least ten people have died as a result of the storm in Florida and the death toll is expected to rise. People had to swim to save their lives and there are a lot of people who have lost their homes and possessions. There are a lot of people deeply affected by this storm and the trauma they have experienced will have lasting effects. The response of state and national governments to the disaster will be critical in helping folks to recover from the impact of the storm. In addition to the thoughts and prayers of the rest of the world, folks need real hands-on help with cleaning up, recovering what can be recovered, and replacing what has been lost. There will be complex decisions about which areas can continue to be occupied and which people will need to relocate to saver places.

In the meantime, the waters have risen above the yard signs in many places. Let’s hope they are deep enough that people remember how to behave as neighbors to one another.