Decades ago I worked briefly as a radio DJ at a small market radio station in rural North Dakota. My on air shift was at the beginning of the broadcast day. Our station signed off at 10 pm and returned to the air at 6 am. My job included turning on the transmitter and preparing to go live and then hosting the morning “get up and go” show from 6 to 9 am. That schedule worked well with my day job of being a pastor. I was finished with my radio work by the time my colleagues were getting to work. I didn’t work at the radio station on weekends, so I had no conflict with my duties as pastor. One of the things I did every day was to read the commodity market prices. In those days, the prices came to the radio station over a teletype machine and I would read them live on the air. I’d read the prices for cattle and hogs and corn and soybeans, for wheat and sunflowers and other agricultural products that were produced in our area. Most of the time I read those prices without much comprehension about their meaning other than a general sense that rising prices were good and falling prices were bad for our local economy.

Over the years, I have known a few professional traders who speculate on commodity prices and who have earned their living by trying to anticipate changes in the markets. Their work has always seemed to me to be a pretty risky business and I’ve been grateful that it isn’t my job to study the markets and take the kind of risks required in that venture.

That being said, I’ve been doing a bit of studying recently about the worldwide ginger market. I’ve noticed the effects of the shortage of ginger on the cookies I enjoy. I had thought previously that China must be a big player in the ginger market because of the size of their economy, the number of people living there, and the amount of ginger used in Chinese cooking. It is true that China produces and consumes a significant amount of ginger, but the world ginger market is much more complex than the effects of a single country.

Ginger can be grown in sub-tropical climates around the world. It doesn’t require a lot of water, so semi-arid conditions can produce lots of ginger. It does require some moisture, however, and extremely dry conditions can affect yields. There are some soil-born diseases that attack the rhizomes, but growers who exhibit reasonable caution can control the spread of disease.

Australia is a major producer of ginger. Being south of the equator with the seasons opposite those of northern countries means that Australian ginger can help to moderate the annual rises and falls of the market caused by the seasonal ebb and flow of production.

I’m keeping my eyes on Australia because it is spring there and their ginger harvest next February is going to have a major effect on the worldwide price and supply of ginger. If the harvest is good, supplies should go up and prices should fall. With the northern hemisphere ginger harvest largely completed, ginger lovers have to wait to see what happens south of the equator.

The Covid-19 pandemic and global warming both have had a major impact on the market. Covid-19 dramatically increased the demand for ginger. Ginger has many health benefits and the pandemic resulted in people around the world paying attention to their health and investing in products that have some association with the prevention of disease. Although ginger is not effective for the prevention or for the treatment of Covid-19, the focus on health resulted in a dramatic increase in demand for the spice.

Global warming produced hot and dry conditions that significantly affected the size of the ginger harvest.

Like other commodities, it takes time for the changes in prices and for shortages to show up on grocery store shelves. Ginger passes through a lot of hands before it shoes up on the spice rack in the supermarket. The retail price of Ginger is well in excess of double the price paid to producers. Factors beyond simple supply and demand can have a dramatic effect on how much ginger is available at what price. One of those factors is shipping. Those of us who live in places where little ginger is produced are willing to pay for ginger to be imported to our area.

So far, I have not been doing without ginger. There is a jar of ground ginger in our spice cabinet and I’ve found numerous sources of ginger snap cookies despite the fact that local grocery stores except for Trader Joes seem to simply not be able to keep them in stock. I guess I should be grateful that there is a Trader Joes near the church where I work. I am also aware that the cookies are available for home delivery from Amazon. You can even subscribe for repeated regular delivery if you are that addicted.

Of course there is no substitute for home baked ginger snaps. They are far better than any commercial bakery product.

I’m still not very interested in the commodity markets. I’m perfectly willing to leave the trading and risk taking to others. I don’t intend to keep up with the day to day price of ginger or any other commodity. But I can’t keep from looking, each time I’m in the store, at the cookie aisle. I keep hoping that one of these days I’ll see plenty of boxes of ginger snaps on the shelves. And no, I’m not fooled by the fact that several local grocery stores have filled up their shelves with vanilla wafers. You can have twice as many of those boxes on display, but they won’d distract me from the fact that there is a shortage of ginger snaps. I’ve got enough focus to keep my eye on that market at least.